Capacity control in aluminum industry has a long way to go
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In July 26th, the media misrepresented Shang Fushan, vice president of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, and announced the draft plan for the non-ferrous metal industry in 12th Five-Year at 23.

In the afternoon, sunfull mountain media that is only mentioned in its research on the development strategy of the end of 2009 has completed the "12th Five-Year" of nonferrous metal industry. Shang Fushan said, in 2009, the Ministry of industry has held a meeting, requiring more than one industry to study their "12th Five-Year" development ideas, non-ferrous metals industry is one of them. The implementation of total quantity control in non-ferrous metals industry has attracted the most attention in the market. China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association proposed that, by 2015, ten non-ferrous metals production control within 41 million tons, and in accordance with industrial technology policy, all eliminate backward production capacity.

However, the "misinformation" triggered enormous repercussions, but reflects the reality: China's non-ferrous metal industry is still a lot of problems to be solved. Among them, the most attractive to the market is the control of alumina, electrolytic aluminum production capacity.

From the current domestic aluminum production capacity, according to the relevant agencies of the survey data show that by the end of 2009, China's total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum has reached 20 million tons / year (the current domestic production capacity of more than 18 million tons / year). According to the current understanding of the new project, Chinese alumina production capacity will reach 42 million tons per year to the end of 2010, while the next three years will still have more than 5 million tons of alumina project of electrolytic aluminum and 8 million tons / year project is completed and put into operation, so the production control task is very serious.

Relevant agencies believe that the key to the implementation of this plan is to adjust the structure. Structural adjustment is the need to transform China's economic growth pattern and achieve sustained and steady growth of China's economy. Structural adjustment is necessary to eliminate backward production capacity. In aluminum, for example, according to the NDRC requires the elimination of 100KA and below the electrolyzer, 2010, 2011 China will be close to 1 million 600 thousand tons / year of productivity, which is for the production control effect is very limited, it is expected that countries will implement more stringent aluminum industry backward production capacity out of the plan, such as expanding the scope of backward production capacity the electrolytic tank, eliminated electrolytic strength increased to 160KA or 200KA, will increase 1 million 100 thousand tons or 2 million tons / year out of production.

But only rely on the central government for the elimination of backward production capacity is not enough to complete the planning, related institutions that the size of the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity will exceed 20 million tons / year in 12th Five-Year "plan the mid and later Chinese are not dominating the cost of electrolytic aluminum will become the main obstacles of China Aluminum development. Just as Rusal recently announced to the media in Shanghai, "the average production cost of electrolytic aluminum in China is $2100 / ton, while Rusal is only $1700 / ton."". We do not comment on these figures, but from the global cost curve of electrolytic aluminum, China electrolytic aluminum enterprises are mostly in the high cost, and with the Middle East and other energy rich and low area of electrolytic aluminum projects put into production continuously, China in global competition will be extremely unfavorable situation. The Nonferrous Metals Association for the Chinese aluminum consumption in 2015 set at 24 million tons, and even if the capacity of 20 million tons / year is fully open, China will import 4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum to supplement the domestic aluminum ingot gap. Therefore, the relevant agencies believe that the next five years, the aluminum plate ratio will be re pulled, close to the aluminum ingot import and export ratio (based on the current shore premium and exchange rate is currently estimated to be around 8.3). China will become a big country in electrolytic aluminum imports. Under the impact of low-cost import aluminum ingots, some of the high cost electrolytic aluminum production capacity will be phased out, so as to achieve the goal of capacity control and structural adjustment.

It is similar to alumina industry, at the beginning of Chinese aluminum alumina production capacity will eliminate backward claims 1 million tons / year, subject to the China domestic bauxite resources tight, for the construction of new capacity around the alumina has the trend of control. Similarly, the cost of China's alumina enterprises in the global cost curve mostly belongs to the medium high level, and the lack of cost advantages will be the main bottleneck restricting the development of China's aluminum industry.

Therefore, vigorously develop renewable resources, for the world's largest consumer of aluminum is really a long term, "regeneration of refined copper and recycled aluminum, secondary lead production accounted for refined copper, electrolytic aluminum, refined lead production ratio reached 40%, 30% and 30% respectively". 6 million tons of recycled aluminum production is not a luxury, according to estimates of relevant institutions, the current domestic Aluminum Alloy ingot may yield more than 400 thousand tons, with the domestic aluminum consumption into the recovery period, the increase in domestic scrap supply will guarantee the development of recycled aluminum industry.

Updated:2010-08-13 | Return
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